Forest’s problem is finishing, not access
Expected-points models place Forest far higher than the real table because the team reaches useful shooting positions without converting enough of them. Against City, those chances may be less frequent and therefore more valuable.
The home side must avoid taking a poor shot when an extra pass is available. It also needs runners ready for rebounds, because City’s defenders can block the first attempt.
City must protect the space behind possession
Kick-off is at 17:30 GMT on 7 November. City are likely to control the ball, but two consecutive league defeats show that control alone does not guarantee safety.
When a full-back or midfielder moves forward, another player has to cover the route into Forest’s fastest attackers. A tactical foul cannot be the only response to every turnover.
Efficiency will carry more weight than territory
Forest can accept periods without the ball if their defensive distances remain short. The challenge is to keep enough energy for the moments when City leave space to attack.
City need an early rhythm without becoming impatient. Moving Forest from side to side should create a cleaner opening than forcing passes through the middle. The match may turn on which team makes better use of a small number of clear chances.