The Houston Texans travel to the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3 in the NFL’s only meeting between two 0-2 teams, with both clubs attempting to prevent an early losing run from becoming far harder to recover.
ESPN reported that only four of 102 teams which began 0-3 since 2002 would have finished in the playoff picture when the later expanded 14-team format is applied to earlier seasons. That represents a 3.9% advancement rate, underlining the pressure around a divisional game which arrives after only two weeks.
The figures do not make the fixture decisive in a literal sense, and ESPN’s Football Power Index remains a projection rather than a result. However, the meeting gives either Houston or Indianapolis an immediate chance to improve its position while leaving the other facing an 0-3 start.
Houston seek a running-game response
Houston have recent evidence that an 0-3 beginning need not end a season. ESPN said the Texans lost their first three games in 2025, then went 12-2 across the rest of the regular season and reached the playoffs. Their two defeats in that stretch came against the eventual AFC and NFC top seeds, the Broncos and Seahawks.
That recovery was driven by Houston’s defence, according to ESPN. From Week 4 onwards, the Texans led the league in points allowed per drive at 1.5 and ranked second in EPA per play at minus-0.1. The unit has made a less convincing start this season, standing 19th in points allowed per drive and 23rd in EPA per play through two games.
The more pressing concern identified by ESPN is Houston’s ground attack. Despite offseason additions including running back David Montgomery and several offensive linemen, the Texans ranked 28th in designed-run success rate, 29th in EPA per snap and 30th in yards per carry through two weeks. Montgomery had averaged 2.7 yards per rushing attempt, although he scored three touchdowns in the opener.
ESPN also noted that guard Ed Ingram missed the Bengals loss and tackle Braden Smith was on injured reserve with a foot injury. In that defeat, Houston failed to gain a yard on second-and-one and third-and-one during one second-half drive, having earlier been stopped on fourth-and-one. The Texans then attempted a 58-yard field goal rather than a fourth-and-short conversion attempt, and Ka’imi Fairbairn’s kick fell short.
ESPN’s FPI gave Houston a 41.8% chance of reaching the postseason, the 16th-highest figure in the league. That forecast reflects a better outlook than many winless sides, but the report characterised losses to Buffalo and Cincinnati as a disappointing opening given Houston’s expectations.
Indianapolis must tighten its pass defence
The Colts’ start has featured a different set of problems. ESPN said Indianapolis allowed a league-high 9.1 yards per pass attempt across its first two games, against the Ravens and Chiefs. Opponents were averaging more than 12 yards per throw aimed at the hashes and seams, also the NFL’s worst mark, with passes in that area producing nearly 0.7 EPA per play.
That vulnerability over the middle is especially relevant to this matchup. ESPN assessed that Houston would look to target that area, while adding that Dalton Schultz could become the Texans’ leading receiver if Nico Collins was unable to play. That availability point was presented as conditional, not confirmed.
Indianapolis have also been the fourth-worst tackling team in the NFL on a per-attempt basis through two games, according to Next Gen Stats cited by ESPN. The report acknowledged that facing Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes was a demanding opening, but said the Colts could not afford to concede additional yardage alongside their middle-of-the-field issues.
On offence, ESPN reported that Daniel Jones had averaged 6.1 yards per passing attempt and 5.5 yards per dropback, the latter ranking 27th among quarterbacks at that stage. The Colts have continued to produce explosive plays through Jonathan Taylor and the running game, but ESPN said Jones had not recreated the downfield output he delivered in 2025.
ESPN’s FPI assigned Indianapolis a 25.9% postseason chance, 24th in the NFL. It also described the Colts as having played the toughest schedule to date by that model, with the sixth-easiest remaining schedule. Those projections offer context, but the immediate task is simpler: solve their most evident weaknesses well enough to claim a first win against a division rival facing the same urgent start.